Average yield outlook for winter crops in Ukraine in June 2025

Ukraine June 2025 — Winter cereals reached the final phenological stages, by J. Luque Reyes

Winter and spring 2025 brought mixed conditions across Ukraine, with persistent dryness in the eastern and northernmost oblasts adversely affecting winter cereals. Two late spring cold spells also impacted rapeseed in the west during the flowering and early pod development stages, reducing its yield potential. Nevertheless, most other regions experienced predominantly seasonal conditions, supporting above-average yields for winter crops.

Despite favourable weather conditions in May, with timely rainfall and colder-than-usual temperatures supporting final crop development stages, the overall production outlook for winter cereals is below the five-year average. This is due to earlier stress periods and regional disparities, and to the below-average sown areas. In contrast, rapeseed production is expected to rise, thanks to an increase in sown area, particularly in the southern oblasts.

Remote-sensing data confirms a relatively stable area of winter cereals in the government-controlled territories compared with the previous season, while field abandonment persists in the southeast because of the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine. The sowing campaign for summer crops is nearing completion, with reduced grain maize and sunflowers production areas, against an expansion in soybean plantings. Early development of summer crops is proceeding fairly well overall, with adequate water supply in the west, though persistent dryness continues to pose a risk in the east.

Yield forecasts for both winter and spring crops show considerable interregional variability, with most expectations hovering slightly below the five-year average at country level.

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