Severe drought hits the Horn of Africa; Flooding affects parts of Southern Africa

Main findings of the January global overview

1. Southern Africa is in the middle of the summer crop season with generally good crop and rangeland conditions thanks to favourable rainfall in the last three months. However, southwestern Angola and parts of Zambia report below-average biomass conditions, while heavy rains and flash floods have affected over 655,000 people across the region, particularly in Mozambique. Additionally, African Migratory Locust outbreaks in Zimbabwe and Namibia are threatening crops and pastures (SADC).
2. The East Africa region faces a severe crisis due to prolonged drought and extreme temperatures, resulting in widespread crop failure and livestock losses in parts of southern Ethiopia, eastern and northeastern Kenya and the ASAL (Arid and Semi-Arid Lands) regions of southern Somalia. Tanzania is affected by drought and local floods, while conflict and displacement in Sudan and South Sudan undermine production despite favorable climatic conditions. Although the newly released ICPAC March–May 2026 forecast predicts increased rainfall, food insecurity remains critical, affecting over 33 million people. Immediate and scaled-up humanitarian support is urgently needed to prevent further deterioration in IGAD countries.
3. In West and central Africa, the main season is complete and cereal production is preliminarily forecast at 83.1 million tonnes, almost 10 % above the five-year average (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, ‘Crop prospects and food situation’, November 2025). However, production shortfalls are expected in Benin, Chad, Ghana, Nigeria and Togo. Pastoral conditions are generally good across the region, and good livestock production is expected except in northern Benin, southern Chad, south-western Ghana and the middle belt of Nigeria.
4. Following a dry start, rainfall improved in December and January across the Middle East and North Africa, improving biomass conditions of winter cereals, though areas in western Algeria, parts of Iran, southern Iraq, eastern Morocco, northern Syria, and eastern Tunisia saw reduced sown areas due to drought. In Yemen, the harvest of kharif cereals (sorghum, millet, and maize) was finalized in coastal areas with good prospects. Conditions of winter wheat are favourable in central and northern highlands of Yemen. Despite some agricultural recovery, socioeconomic factors contribute to high food insecurity in Yemen, affecting millions.
5. Despite a drier-than-average start to the winter cereal season, improved rainfall in central Asia and Afghanistan has benefited winter cereals, though food insecurity in Afghanistan is worsening due to the economic crisis, declining aid, and decreasing remittances. In South Asia, conditions remain favourable for crops in Pakistan and Bangladesh. On the contrary, Sri Lanka anticipates reduced rice and maize production in February due to damage from Cyclone Ditwah. Winter crops in North Korea remain dormant under normal conditions.
6. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the 2026 agricultural outlook is largely positive, with El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala anticipating good maize harvests due to favorable rainfall. However, Nicaragua faces drought issues, and high food prices and labor shortages persist despite employment in coffee and sugarcane crops. In the Caribbean, rice and corn production is promising, except for Haiti, which suffers from severe food insecurity due to violence. The Andean region presents a mixed outlook, with Bolivia showing high potential while Peru and parts of Colombia face moisture deficits.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of February 2026.