Around 87 million Europeans are exposed to multiple natural hazards

JRC scientists identified areas in the wider European region more exposed to multiple natural hazards, providing valuable insight to competent authorities tasked with disaster risk management, preparedness and response. 

By analysing data on six hazards – coastal flooding, river flooding, landslides, earthquakes, wildfires, and soil shrinking and swelling (subsidence)— alongside population and economic information, they mapped out the local administrative units (municipalities or communes) most exposed to multiple hazards.

The findings are published in the paper Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level. It is the first time such a granular assessment, at local administrative units has been carried out.

Which areas face disaster risks?

Disasters are sometimes considered external shocks, but disaster risk results from the complex interaction between development processes that generate conditions of exposure, vulnerability and hazard. Disaster risk is therefore considered as the combination of the severity and frequency of a hazard, the numbers of people and assets exposed to the hazard, and their vulnerability to damage.

A share of 21.4% of local administrative units in the EU27 and the UK, home to approximately 87 million people, are exposed to multiple hazards. Nearly half of this population faces exposure to three or more hazards. In France, the highest number of local administrative units is exposed (around 7000; although it also has the largest number of municipalities), followed by Italy, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Spain, Germany and Romania, the latter counting around 1000 municipalities exposed. 

In terms of population, Italy has the highest number of people exposed to multiple hazards, with 21.4 million residents exposed. Together with the Netherlands, France, Spain, and Germany, these five countries account for 55% of the EU’s population exposed to multi-hazards. 

Only six municipalities across Europe are exposed to six hazards — five in Italy and one in Croatia — mainly in mountainous and coastal regions.

Income plays a key role in exposure to hazards

The study shows that besides the location, income levels significantly influence risk exposure too, with high-income urban areas and low-income rural areas facing the greatest exposure to multi-hazards.

About 36% of the municipalities exposed to multi-hazards are low-income regions. When combined with the low-middle income municipalities, together they make up 67% of the municipalities exposed to more than a single hazard. The low-income municipalities most affected are in Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Italy and Portugal. 

High-income and upper middle income municipalities, while representing a smaller proportion of the total number of exposed municipalities, tend to have larger populations. As a result, a higher number of people are exposed to multi-hazards there. Most of the high-income people exposed are in the Netherlands (33%). In Germany, Italy and Austria more than 10% of the population is exposed in each country.

In some European countries, people in rural areas face more risks from multiple hazards than those in cities. This is especially true in Sweden and Norway, where everyone living in rural areas is exposed to more than one hazard. In contrast, in the Netherlands and Austria, more than 80% of the people exposed live in cities. 

Multi-hazard analyses are the way forward, but they need improvement

By identifying which areas are at higher risk of being impacted by different hazards — and how socio-economic and spatial factors affect risk — this study provides valuable insights for disaster risk management strategies.

And because the combined impact of hazards can be different from the sum of each hazards’ impacts, the methodology used is very valuable. The Portugal wildfires and the flash floods of 2017 or the floods and dam failure in Czechia in 2002 are good examples of how interaction between hazards can amplify their isolated impacts.

As such, scientists stress the need to continue improving multi-hazard assessments through relying on more and better data, mapping of the complexity of hazards interaction, and considering temporal dynamics. 

Background information

The study was conducted using data from the Risk Data Hub (RDH), a platform of the European Commission’s Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre (DRMKC). The Risk Data Hub is a central hub for European-wide risk data, supporting disaster risk management and climate change adaptation at the national and subnational levels.

The study was the first of its kind to provide a statistically robust, spatially detailed assessment of multi-hazard exposure across Europe’s local administrative units. 

Related links

Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level