Shaping the 2040 climate targets
The complexity of climate change and the breadth of its impact requires an objective, scientific, evidence-based approach to policymaking.
As an independent body, the JRC provides unbiased assessments of policy options. The JRC's continuous efforts to advance scientific understanding and emissions inventories have helped the EU and the global community meet ambitious targets aimed at mitigating climate change.
In 2024, the JRC's analysis underpinned the Commission's recommendation for a 90% emissions reduction goal by 2040, to ensure EU climate neutrality by 2050.
Global impact
Ensures policymakers understand the trade-offs and synergies based on comprehensive modelling and data.
Sound climate policy must be guided by facts, not short-term politics. The JRC has delivered accurate data, reliable models and expert analysis for many years. Its contribution to advancing scientific awareness and advising on actionable pathways has been immense, for the EU but also for the global community.
Ensured long-term continuity and coherence
For more than two decades, the JRC has worked to advance the EU and global climate agendas. It aims to increase awareness about the global status of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and the potential pathways to climate neutrality. The JRC has provided the scientific foundation for many of the EU's climate policies, delivering targeted evidence on specific aspects of climate change. Sandrine Dixson-Decleve from the Club of Rome confirms in her quote the JRC’s immense contribution to inform sound climate policy decisions, for the EU and beyond.
For the 2040 climate target, the JRC was involved from the onset, and was extremely helpful in connecting the dots between the different policy areas. The JRC acted as a central hub for integrating different perspectives and policy options. This facilitated the creation of a common knowledge base whereby the various DGs could interact based on the same baselines, scenarios, and models. The JRC’s central role also ensured continuity and coherence in the sequence of EU regulations.
Supported with diverse modelling toolbox
The JRC has developed a unique and comprehensive modelling toolbox to support EU policies towards climate neutrality and position the EU at the forefront of modelling capacity for climate diplomacy purposes. For the main 2040 climate target options, JRC scientists carried out a macro-economic assessment of the socio-economic impacts using the JRC-GEM-E3 applied general equilibrium model. This covers the interactions between the economy, the energy system and the environment, taking into account also the distributional concerns.
In addition to assessing the socio-economic impacts, JRC scientists also explored the possible technological pathways to decarbonise the EU’s energy system to 2040, thanks to the JRC-developed economic model POTEnCIA (Policy-Oriented Tool for Energy and Climate Change Impact Assessment). A third example from the JRC’s modelling toolbox that was used for the 2040 climate target was the Forest Carbon Model JRC-CBM. This forest carbon model enabled policymakers to assess the impact and contribution of land use and forest sinks under the various 2040 scenarios.
Considered broader societal impacts
The JRC also helped policymakers consider the broader impacts of the various policy options for a 2040 EU climate target. For example, scientists analysed the higher raw materials demand which could be expected as a result of the different technological pathways.
The potential territorial impacts of a 2040 climate target were also assessed via the JRC’s Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR). Indeed, EDGAR’s national GHG emissions inventories helped the Directorate-General for Regional and Urban Policy (DG REGIO) anticipate the exposure of different EU regions to the various policy options, which were then included in the Commission proposal’s impact assessment. The JRC also provided ample evidence to policymakers about the cost of inaction, if no EU 2040 climate target was agreed.
Taking advantage of its interdisciplinary teams and research, the JRC was able to offer comprehensive modelling and scenarios that helped policymakers understand the trade-offs and synergies between the different policy options for the EU’s 2040 climate target.