JRC explains | 18 July 2025 | Joint Research Centre
For centuries severe droughts have occurred in Europe only rarely, with generations remembering the destructive consequences of food and water shortages or economic losses. The past decade has shown that the climate system has been changing dramatically, and Europe is at risk of facing major droughts almost every summer season.
JRC scientists predict that seasonal spring and summer droughts could not only become the norm in Europe around mid-century, but in areas like the Mediterranean, droughts could turn into aridity, which would irreversibly deteriorate land conditions. The European Central Bank estimates that such damage could cost up to 15% of the EU economy by 2050.
Droughts: from natural to extraordinary
While droughts as a natural phenomenon have been recorded for centuries, the past decade has been far from ordinary. The 2018 drought broke all records in central and northern Europe. Together with compound heatwaves, it affected large regions of the northern hemisphere. The exceptional combination of high temperatures and lack of rain was unprecedented and caused severe damage and losses to key sectors, such as agriculture. When that happened, no one expected that just four years later another drought would affect two-thirds of the European territory. The 2022 drought affected all sectors, in particular agriculture, energy production and river transport, as well as ecosystems.
Hoping for the best but preparing for the worst
Scientists are trying to understand and explain the causes of these more frequent and extreme droughts through the rapidly evolving field of attribution science. Recent work in this field focuses on specific extreme events like severe droughts to determine whether human-induced climate change, triggered by the increase in greenhouse-gas emissions, caused, contributed or exacerbated these events.
Long-term trends show that climate change is altering the global water cycle, increasing the frequency of extreme events like floods or droughts and making them more intense. Unsustainable water and land use and management have also contributed to this pattern.
Attributing specific causes and effects in individual events requires advanced modelling, and so far, there have been only a few studies that tried to understand how local human activities can impact the climate in small geographical areas. The JRC has for example studied the impact of changes in rice production practices on local land, water and weather conditions in Italy. The findings and observations suggest a link between the intensity of droughts and how land and water are managed.
When drought becomes permanent
Current climate projections are highly concerning, and researchers warn that in certain parts of Europe, droughts could become the new norm, while in others they could turn into aridity. This is when the land is so dry that the functioning of ecosystems and all socio-economic sectors is at risk.
By definition, drought is a temporary situation with short-term effects. It starts as a period with an unusual lack of rainfall, compared with the average for the area at that time of year. Aridity, however, is a long-term process with a lasting impact on the environment.
In Europe, the Mediterranean area is particularly at risk, with projections pointing to an increase in aridification.
What are tipping points?
Such changes in the environment can have an impact on whole ecosystems and reach critical conditions. Once we arrive at these conditions, there is no easy coming back. This is what we call tipping points. To prevent this from happening, researchers use complex modelling systems to test different scenarios and look at early warning signals.
One of the most concerning global tipping points is the collapse of the Amazon rainforest system. Widespread deforestation combined with the impacts of climate change could lead to the Amazon rainforest turning into a savannah. This would have a significant global impact, such as changing the global water cycle. These changes could have catastrophic consequences, damaging biodiversity, affecting agriculture, causing food shortages and impacting people’s lives.
How is the JRC helping the EU prepare for the future?
In Europe, cooperation between EU member states has reduced the devastating impacts of severe droughts on individual countries. The JRC works hand-in-hand with the EU crisis centre to help countries prepare and react to weather extremes and other disasters, saving lives and limiting damage and losses. The increasing frequency and severity of droughts require developing and implementing proactive and prospective risk management strategies, such as the EU water resilience strategy and the EU adaptation strategy, aligned with sustainable and effective adaptation.
Drought research is a complex discipline, which requires innovative integrated modelling. The JRC works together with European and international partners, such as the Integrated Drought Management Programme, to improve our understanding and develop effective strategies to reduce the risks and adapt.
The JRC is also actively involved in the International Drought Resilience Alliance and works together with the UNCCD to estimate global drought risks and shape the path towards drought resilience. This includes working on strategies to reduce the risks associated with droughts, and supporting efforts to improve the monitoring and predictions.