Skip to main content
Λογότυπος της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτροπής
EU Science Hub

Archive of GECO editions

Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2017: How climate policies improve air quality

 
publication_107944_cover.jpg

 

 
publication_107366_cover.jpg

 

GECO 2017 - Main reportGECO 2017 - GHG and energy balances

 

GECO data visualisation

GECO 2017 Data visualisation [superceded by newer GECO version]

 

geco_climate_policy_thumb.png

Explore the story interactively

 

GECO2017 has been produced in close collaboration with EC DG CLIMA.

GECO2017 shows that achieving the climate change mitigation target of staying below 2°C temperature rise is possible technically – thanks to an acceleration of decarbonisation trends, an increased electrification of final demand and large changes in the primary energy mix that include a phase out of coal and a reduction of oil and gas – and is consistent with economic growth. It yields co-benefits via improved air quality – including avoided deaths, reduction of respiratory diseases and agricultural productivity improvement – that largely offset the cost of climate change mitigation. These co-benefits arise without extra investment costs and are additional to the benefits of avoiding global warming and its impact on the economy.

GECO2017 examines the evolution of the world energy system and of greenhouse gas emissions to 2050 under several energy and climate policy configurations, using recent policy announcements and energy and economic data, aiming at contributing to the international discussions and to the preparations for the future global stock-taking exercises. Several economy-energy scenarios to 2050 were developed:

  • a Reference scenario, which mostly takes into account all adopted policies for the 2020 time horizon;
  • a Below 2°C scenario that aims at respecting the long-term 2°C target with a high probability, implying very rapid action in line with the recommendations of the IPCC AR5 report;
  • an INDC scenario that assumes the full implementation of the 2025-2030 country objectives submitted throughout 2015 or updated since.

The study includes:

  • An outlook of greenhouse gases emissions, how they evolve across scenarios and what mitigation options are undertaken in each scenario.
  • An outlook of the energy markets in the context of climate mitigation policies, including the evolution of primary energy supply, energy supply by fuel, the power sector and final energy demand, along with the evolution of energy prices and investment needs in broad terms for energy supply (and more specifically for the power sector).
  • Macro-economic implications of climate mitigation strategies.

 

GHG emissions, World, and average annual growth rates for GHG emissions intensity of the economy (left); global average temperature change (right)

 

Although the countries' pledges under the Paris Agreement (INDCs) initiate a break with historical GHG trends, reaching the below 2°C target demands a decorrelation of emissions from economic growth by an acceleration of decarbonisation trends from 2020 onwards (energy intensity decrease 5.8% per year on average over 2015-2050 vs. -1.7% per year in 1900-2010), an increased electrification of final demand (35% in 2050 vs. 18% in 2015) and large changes in the primary energy mix (phase out of coal, reduction of oil and gas after 2030; fossil fuels 46% and low carbon including CCS 59% in 2050, vs. 81% and 19% in 2015, respectively).

In addition, GECO2017 explores the synergies between climate policy and air pollution controls to provide opportunities towards a more sustainable future for all. The study shows that mitigating climate change is possible technically, consistent with economic growth, and yields co-benefits via improved air quality that largely offset the cost of climate change mitigation. Co-benefits include avoided deaths, reduction of respiratory diseases and agricultural productivity improvement.

These co-benefits arise without extra investment costs and are additional to the benefits of avoiding global warming and its impact on the economy. They take place in all regions, varying with the ambition level of climate policies and the initial energy mix, and are strongly linked to the reduction of fossil fuel use; they occur locally and in a shorter time frame, providing strong complementary incentives for policymakers to move ahead on ambitious climate action.

 

Comparison of mitigation cost and air quality co-benefits in 2030

 

The Paris Agreement is estimated to avoid approximately 100,000 air pollution-related deaths annually by 2030 on a global level, of which more than half in China alone. Reaching a GHG trajectory compatible with temperature increases well below 2°C could save roughly 1.5 million lives annually by 2050. In addition to avoided deaths, it also reduces the number of air pollution-related cases of illnesses such as asthma and bronchitis by 15-40% annually by 2050 and raises crop yields by 2.5-6.6%.

By 2030, global air quality co-benefits more than compensate the cost of climate change mitigation policies. This finding is particularly strong for highly polluted fast-growing low income countries relying on coal, and less so for regions with a strong economic dependence on fossil fuel exports (higher mitigation costs) or for countries whose mitigation policy relies heavily on land use measures (lower co-benefits).

GECO2016 has been produced in close collaboration with EC DG CLIMA.

 

 

GECO 2016 Global Energy and Climate Outlook: Road from Paris

 
publication_101899_cover.jpg

 

 
publication_101924_cover.jpg

 

GECO 2016 - Main reportGECO 2016 - GHG and energy balances

GECO 2016 - Policies considered

GECO2016 examines the evolution of the world energy system and of greenhouse gas emissions to 2050 under several energy and climate policy configurations. Taking into account the outcome of the UNFCCC COP21 and using recent energy and economic data, this report aims at contributing to the international discussions and to the preparations for the future global stock-taking exercises.

It presents an analysis of several low-emission development pathways, achievable through the aggregate effect of national policies or through globally coordinated action, illustrating some of the economic challenges and opportunities for specific energy markets, sectors and technologies.

The report includes:

Several scenarios: economy-energy scenarios to 2050 developed for this report, with a description of key macro assumptions on population and GDP growth and the scenario-specific policies considered. Four scenarios are considered in this report:

  • a Reference scenario, which mostly takes into account all adopted policies for the 2020 time horizon;
  • a 2°C scenario that aims at respecting the long-term 2°C target with a high probability, implying very rapid action in line with the recommendations of the IPCC AR5 report;
  • an INDC scenario that assumes the full implementation of the 2025-2030 country objectives submitted throughout 2015.
  • Outlook of greenhouse gases emissions, how they evolve across scenarios and what mitigation options are undertaken in each scenario.
  • Outlook of the energy markets in the context of climate mitigation policies, including the evolution of primary energy supply, energy supply by fuel, the power sector and final energy demand. It also looks at the future evolution of energy prices and investment needs in broad terms for energy supply and more specifically for the power sector.
  • Specific case studies that were developed as thematic variants to the central scenarios. It describes in particular a sustained low oil price and a phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies.
  • Macro-economic implications of climate mitigation strategies.

 

Notes: the average yearly evolution of emission intensity of GDP is given for each scenario; total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF sinks.

GECO2015 has been authored in close collaboration with DG CLIMA.

 

 

GECO 2015 Global Energy and Climate Outlook: Road to Paris. Assessment of Low Emission Levels under World Action Integrating National Contributions

This report presents the modelling work quoted in the EC communication "The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 - in the EU's Energy Union package. It examines the effects of a Baseline scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, and of a Global Mitigation scenario in line with keeping global warming below 2ºC. The analysis uses the POLES and GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change. In the Baseline, emissions trigger +3.5ºC global warming. In the Global Mitigation scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2ºC, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics.

A significant transformation of the energy systems and non-energy measures enable regions at all levels of income to move to a low-emission growth pathway. Sectors linked (directly or indirectly) to carbon-intensive processes adjust their investments to be competitive in a low-emission environment.

A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments. GDP growth rates are marginally affected in most regions by global efforts to reduce emissions. Crucially, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. Economic costs are reduced further when countries use emission permit auction revenues for other tax reductions. Delaying actions to stay below 2ºC add large economic costs.

 
global energy and climate outlook road to paris.jpg

 

 
publication_95759_cover.jpg

 

GECO 2015 - Main reportGECO 2015 - GHG and energy balances

 

 

Related Content

Poster: Climate Policy Improves Air Quality And Saves Lives

JRC Policy Brief: Analysis of scenarios integrating the INDCs

Communication by the European Commission: "The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020"

Leaflet: Science for Climate Action