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Baselines for policy assessments: methodology

A baseline describes the evolution of an economy under current trends and adopted policies. It should therefore reflect a reasonable evolution of macro-economic trends. At the same time, the methods developed at the JRC are able to take into account specific sectoral assumptions.

The Platform to Integrate Reconcile and Align Model-based Input-Output Data (PIRAMID) is set up to integrate different exogenous assumptions and data inputs. It combines broad macroeconomic trends with data coming from sectoral projections to produce the input-output tables. PIRAMID projects forward input-output tables and satellite data for energy and emissions in five year steps, closely following exogenous projections from demographic, macroeconomic, and energy system models in a consistent way. The method allows for good control of the key variables and for introducing structural changes, such as the ongoing decarbonisation of the energy system.

The baseline is presented as a detailed time series of input-output tables, which represent all economic interactions between firms, households and governments. The dataset covers key world regions up to mid-century and includes energy use by sector and trade of energy goods across regions. These tables can either be directly used for policy analysis or and be used for analysis in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models.

By making the dataset publicly available, it can be freely shared across different modelling teams, enabling data transparency and fostering an open stakeholder engagement process. The latest baseline can be downloaded at the JRC data catalogue. It is accompanied by a technical documentation, including a detailed list of data sources used in the baseline compilation. See the data products page for a suggested citation.