09:30-10:30
Registration & welcome coffee
10:30-11:30
Opening & keynote (Copper Hall)
- Vladimír Šucha, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
- Keynote: Gerd Leonhard, The Futures Agency & Author of 'Technology vs Humanity'
Technology and humanity: The next decade, and what it means for policy
11:30-13:00
Parallel sessions I
- Session 1: Democracy and inequality
- Session 2: The exponential development of technology
- Session 3: The changing nature of work
13:00-14:15
Warm lunch & posters display
14:15-15:45
Parallel sessions II
- Session 4: The role of Europe in the world
- Session 5: Changing the paradigm to build a sustainable future?
- Session 6: Future shape of our societies
15:45-16:15
Coffee break & posters display
16:15-18:00
Debate & keynote (Copper Hall)
Future of foresight for policymaking - key messages from parallel sessions:
- Anne Stenros, City of Helsinki, Finland
- Alan Porter, Technology Policy and Assessment Center at Georgia Institute of Technology, USA
- Lydia Garrido Luzardo, Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, Uruguay
- Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Malta Council for Science and Technology
- Matthias Weber, Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT), Austria
- Cristiano Cagnin, Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), Brazil
Keynote: Stephen Boucher, Fondation EURACTIV, Belgium
Quality In, Quality Out - A few thoughts on increasing foresight's policy impact
Moderator: Xavier Troussard, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
18:00-18:30
Launch of the JRC Competence Centre on Foresight (Copper Hall)
- Moderator: Vladimír Šucha, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
- Panellists: Duncan Cass-Beggs, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); Riel Miller, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation UNESCO; Ricardo Borges de Castro, European Commission, European Political Strategy Centre (EPSC)
- Speaker: Xavier Troussard, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
18:30
Closure day 1 (Copper Hall)
18:30-20:00
Cocktail, posters display & networking
Webstreaming
- 10:30-11:30: Conference opening & keynote
- 16:15-18:00: Plenary keynote & debate
- 18:00-18:30: Launch of the JRC Competence Centre on Foresight
11:30-13:00
Parallel sessions I
Theme 1 - People & Power - New actors, new channels of influence
Session 1: Democracy and inequality (Studio 213/215)
Democratic governing systems are going through challenging times: globally, poverty is declining but income gaps and relative poverty within advanced countries are rising with the wealthy becoming even wealthier and more influential.
Overall trust in political institutions is declining. A growing segment of voters is feeling left out and not represented in mainstream policymaking.
Non-state actors such as multinational corporations, civil society organisations, cities and regions are forming a multitude of parallel and overlapping governing systems that gain influence over traditional decision-making structures. Social media and digital platforms for engagement provide new tools for direct democracy, but also reinforce populist tendencies in filter bubbles.
Is democracy failing or is it just taking new forms? How might involvement and inclusion look like in an era of hyper-connectedness? Is growing concentration of economic power counterbalanced by social movements? What will be the role of government - a provider of platforms for participation or facilitator of transactions?
Speakers
- Esenam Amuzu, Journalist, My Teen Life initiative, Ghana
- Stefaan Verhulst, GOVLAB, United States
Panellists
- Amalia Zepou, Deputy Mayor of Athens, Greece
- Eckhard Stoermer, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
- Milica Begovic Radojevic, United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
- Duncan Cass-Beggs, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Moderator: Arthur Muliro, Society for International Development, Italy
Rapporteur: Anne Stenros, City of Helsinki, Finland
Theme 2 - Policymaking & Practice - Speed, complexity, urgency
Session 2: The exponential development of technology (Copper Hall)
Genetics, synthetic biology, nanotechnology, robotics, materials, artificial intelligence, photonics, quantum and many other technologies are advancing simultaneously at fast pace and the synergies among them are leading to the ever faster development of technological applications.
They are changing the nature and speed of new scientific discoveries, they are challenging our understanding of what is possible, they are posing new ethical questions and creating new power structures.
Hyper-connectivity, the Internet of Things (IoT), augmented reality and collective intelligence systems, combined with falling costs of implementation of new technologies are transforming entire systems of production, management, and governance. This is a challenging environment for policymaking.
Should stakeholders discuss the purpose of emerging technologies than focusing merely on their potential? How to ensure 'responsible' technology development working for the benefit of society? How can policymaking ensure the ethical use of new technologies when some of them exceed human capacities to an extent never before experienced?
Speakers
- Jean-Pierre Bourguignon, European Research Council
- Jessica Bland, Dubai Future Foundation, United Arab Emirates
Panellists
- Eva Kaili, Member of European Parliament
- Peter Droell, European Commission, Department for Research and Innovation (DG RTD)
- Hilary Sutcliffe, SocietyInside, United Kingdom
- Christopher Coenen, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany
Moderator: Matthias Weber, Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT), Austria
Rapporteur: Alan Porter, Technology Policy and Assessment Center at Georgia Institute of Technology, USA
Theme 3 - Perceptions & Potentials - Transitions, values, trust
Session 3: The changing nature of work (Studio 211/212)
By 2030, tech-savvy, hyper-connected millennials will represent 75% of the workforce, and older generations will work longer. Advancements in technology and automation are increasingly substituting both routine and cognitive tasks, while increasing the need for new skills and creating unprecedented opportunities.
New generations making use of hyper-connectivity and fast development of new technologies are rapidly changing educational needs, giving more importance to lifelong learning and informal, distributed training. The forms of employment, career models, and labour organisational structures are changing.
This mix of fundamental changes, resulting in opportunities and challenges, raises a number of questions for society at large and policymakers in particular.
Will we need to abandon the paradigm of 'full employment' and what would replace it? What vision do we have for the future of work? Which skills-mismatches does the transformation bring and what roles will education and learning play? How can policy shape the transition to the future of work?
Speakers
- Jerome Glenn, The Millennium Project, United States
- Ruth Yeoman, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
Panellists
- Michael Schönstein, Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, Germany
- Hector Casanueva, Chilean Council for Foresight and Strategy, Chile
- Ndubuisi Ekekwe, African Institution of Technology, Nigeria
- Nikita Sanaullah, European Youth Forum, Belgium
Moderator: Gianluca Misuraca, European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Rapporteur: Lydia Garrido Luzardo, Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, Uruguay
14:15-15:45
Parallel Sessions II
Theme 1 - People & Power - New actors, new channels of influence
Session 4: The role of Europe in the world (Studio 213/215)
Powers are shifting, disruptions are multiplying, and societal tensions are rising.
If present trends continue, by 2050, the E7 (China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico and Turkey) might have more economic and political influence than the G7.
Globalization seems well established but the changes to the understanding of power, the blending of local and global issues, new technologies and the failings of global governance are challenging policymaking around the world.
Yet, the EU, with its ability to embrace multi-level governance built around a common set of values might be uniquely positioned to address these new challenges.
What are the potential implications of the power shifts for the EU? How could the EU lead the way to a peaceful, globally prosperous world?
Speakers
- Arthur Muliro, Society for International Development, Italy
- Mathew J. Burrows, Foresight, Strategy and Risks Initiative, Atlantic Council, United States
Panellists
- Simonetta Cook, General Secretariat of the Council
- Emily Munro, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Switzerland
- Ana Gomes, Member of European Parliament
Moderator: Eamonn Noonan, European Parliamentary Research Service
Rapporteur: Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Malta Council for Science and Technology
Theme 2 - Policymaking & Practice - Speed, complexity, urgency
Session 5: Changing the paradigm to build a sustainable future? (Copper Hall)
By 2030, the consumer class is expected to reach 5 billion people, 2 billion more than today, mostly from Asia. They bring with them changes in consumption patterns, strongly increasing demand for food, water, energy and materials.
However, it is plausible that supply could hit severe bottlenecks caused by climate change, pollution, overexploitation of natural resources and environmental degradation. Science is confident that these trends will lead to severe, pervasive and irreversible changes for people, assets, economies and ecosystems around the world.
In the face of challenges of such scope and scale, how can policy making at various levels engineer the necessary timely transition towards a sustainable future? What role should the EU take in this endeavour and is it ready to do so? What role for other actors?
Speakers
- Jock Martin, European Environment Agency
- Eeva Hellström, The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra, Finland
Panellists
- Jos Delbeke, European Commission, European Political Strategy Centre (EPSC)
- Tim Benton, University of Leeds, United Kingdom
- Fumiko Kasuga, Future Earth Global Hub Japan, and National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
Moderator: Sirkka Heinonen, Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, Finland
Rapporteur: Matthias Weber, Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT), Austria
Theme 3 - Perceptions & Potentials - Transitions, values, trust
Session 6: Future shape of our societies (Studio 211/212)
The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050; half of the world’s population growth will be concentrated in just nine countries.
Soon the population of India will surpass that of China; Nigeria’s population will surpass that of the United States and become the third largest before 2050. At the same time more and more countries have aging populations.
Population growth is taking place mainly in urban areas over; today half of the world's population lives in cities, by 2050 this share is expected to reach 66%.
Overall migration flows have remained fairly stable over the past decades but conflicts, poverty and natural disasters makes flows unpredictable and high local concentrations can cause public anxiety, identity crises and xenophobia.
How will shifts in perceptions and values transform societies across the world? What effects will demographic and urbanisation trends have on future social dynamics? How will rural areas develop?
Speakers
- Stuart Candy, School of Design at Carnegie Mellon University, United States
- Mansi Jasuja, IHS, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Panelists
- Michele Ribotta, UN Women Regional Office for Europe and Central Asia Region
- Aliyyah Ahad, Migration Policy Institute Europe
- Sohail Inayatullah, UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies, USIM, Australia
- Chris Murray, Core Cities, United Kingdom
Moderator: Riel Miller, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation UNESCO, Paris
Rapporteur: Cristiano Cagnin, Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), Brazil
Exhibitions
Boking Future Health (Silver Cube)
- Christian Bason, Dansk Design Center
- Sara Gry Striegler, Dansk Design Center
- Anne Danielsen, Dansk Design Center