GDO analytical report
A severe drought is currently affecting Central America and Mexico, due to an extremely dry period. The spatial-temporal evolution of the ongoing drought shows a shift from south-east to north-west.
Heatwaves are exacerbating the impact of the lack of precipitation, and the average temperature is abnormally high for the season.
Soil moisture and vegetation conditions are severely affected, with negative anomalies over large areas of the region.
Crop damages and losses have caused the Acute Food Insecurity to rise to crisis level (i.e. IPC Phase 3)1 in most of Central America.
Wildfire danger is high mainly in the central-northern part of Mexico.
The drought is affecting both navigation, including in the Panama Canal, and energy production, with severe economic impacts. River flow forecasts suggest that these impacts are likely to get worse.
Seasonal forecasts point definitively to warmer than average months. As for precipitation, the uncertainty is high. Close monitoring of the drought evolution, and proper water use plans, are needed.
Toreti, A., Bavera, D., Acosta Navarro, J., Arias-Muñoz, C., Barbosa, P., De Jager, A., Di Ciollo, C., Fioravanti, G., Grimaldi, S., Hrast Essenfelder, A., Maetens, W., Magni, D., Masante, D., Mazzeschi, M., Mccormick, N. and Salamon, P., Drought in central America and Mexico - August 2023, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2023, doi:10.2760/00589, JRC135033.
2023-09-26
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC135033
978-92-68-07671-2 (online)
1831-9424 (online)
EUR 31664 EN , OP KJ-NA-31-664-EN-N (online)